Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn markets. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng
Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn markets. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng

Thứ Sáu, 15 tháng 3, 2013

US markets pause after week of record runs

US markets have taken a needed pause after a relentless 10-day run, marked by the Dow setting new records for eight straight sessions.

While expectations of a correction were common, most analysts on Friday continued to dismiss suggestions of a new bubble and said stocks could continue to climb as long as the Federal Reserve keeps in place its easy money policy.

Even new Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew, asked on the news channel CNBC if the markets were again over inflated, dismissed the idea.

"The analysis that I've seen doesn't give me reason to be worried right now," he said.

Economic data continued to favour a stronger growth picture.

Official figures in the past week showed that consumption appeared to be holding up amid higher petrol prices and higher tax deductions on pay cheques, and in the face of spending cutbacks by the government.

That helped keep a footing under market sentiment, taking the Dow to its newest closing record on Thursday, at 14,539.14, some 375 points beyond where the old 2007 high-mark stood before the market surge of the past two weeks.

The S&P 500 came within less than two points of its October 9, 2007 record on Thursday, but could not manage a new benchmark.

Overall for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.81 per cent, ending at 14,514.11.

The broader S&P 500 gained 0.62 per cent to 1,560.70, while the Nasdaq Composite crept up 0.14 per cent to 3,249.07.

The Dow's record aside, the S&P's steady gains say more about the market's rebound, according to Peter Cardillo of Rockwell Global Capital.

"It indicates the broader market is now beginning to blossom out. It's not being confined to a list of 30 blue-chip stocks. So that means you have a greater participation of stocks moving in an upward direction."

Whether there is much more buying sentiment to keep powering the markets ahead is a matter of debate, however.

"The relentless march of the equity markets has raised concerns as to whether monetary policy is fuelling another bubble. The rise, so far, appears to be in line with improving economic fundamentals, which may still be underestimated," said analysts at Wells Fargo Securities.

Cardillo dismissed the bubble description.

"But we're probably reaching levels where the market needs to take a rest... So we could be in for a slight pullback until the latter part of April/May."

But Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald was less confident.

"It's a very mixed picture. There are plenty of arguments on the fundamental side, globally, that lead me to believe that the US market is way overdone given the fundamentals of the rest of the world," he said.

The slow speed of the rise has been a good sign, not outpacing too much the data on the economy and corporate profits, some analysts say.

But they also note that it represents a caution that could easily turn to selling.

"The volumes are low, overall we haven't seen huge activity," pointed out Steven Rosen at Societe Generale.

"I don't get the feeling that the market as a whole believe in this rally," he said.

The divergence of views has left traders eyeing every piece of economic data and, especially, every comment from members of the Federal Reserve, whose ultra-low interest rates and continued easy money policies underpin the boom.

That gives increasing importance too to the Federal Reserve's policy board meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.

The last meeting showed increasing signs of nervousness among a handful of members of the Federal Open Market Committee over the risks in its stimulus efforts, particularly its open-ended, $US85 billion ($A82.28 billion) a month bond purchases feeding liquidity into the economy.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has steadfastly defended the current central bank policies over the past three months, arguing that the US economy remains fragile and unemployment too high to curtail monetary easing.

But any sign of more support in the FOMC for reeling in that program could push up interest rates and the US dollar and take some wind out of stocks.


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Thứ Ba, 12 tháng 3, 2013

International markets roundup

A ROUNDUP of trading on major world markets:

NEW YORK - Wall Street crept higher on Monday, and the Dow Jones industrial average was on track for its seventh straight day of gains.

The Dow was up x points to 14,432 heading into the close, an increase of 0.2 per cent. The blue-chip index blew past its all-time high last Tuesday, then kept climbing to end the week up two per cent.

Boeing was the Dow's top stock on Monday, rising nearly two per cent. A Boeing executive reportedly said he's confident the aircraft maker has figured out a fix for the battery problems that have grounded the 787 Dreamliner.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up four points, or 0.28 per cent, to 1,555.

(The S&P 500 index all-time closing high of 1,565 from October 2007.)

There were no major economic reports to drive trading on Monday. Later in the week, the government will release figures for the federal budget in February, as well as reports on consumer prices and industrial production.

LONDON - European stock markets closed with mixed but mainly weaker results as disappointing Chinese economic data offset positive job numbers out of the United States.

London's FTSE 100 index of leading companies gained 0.31 per cent to 6,503.63 on Monday, while Frankfurt's DAX 30 fell by a slight 0.03 per cent to 7,984.29 and the CAC 40 edged down by 0.10 per cent to 3,836.27 in Paris.

In Madrid the Ibex 35 was off by 0.85 per cent and Milan's FTSE Mib gave up 0.69 per cent.

HONG KONG - Asian markets were mixed after another record-breaking performance on Wall Street on Friday, while Shanghai dipped as disappointing economic data fuelled concerns about China's economy.

The US dollar got a boost from better-than-forecast US jobs figures, hitting multi-year highs against the yen.

Tokyo rose 0.53 per cent, or 65.43 points, to 12,349.05.

Seoul eased 0.13 per cent, losing 2.66 points to close at 2,003.35, while Shanghai lost 0.35 per cent, or 8.02 points, to end at 2,310.59 and Hong Kong was flat, dipping 1.13 points to 23,090.82.

WELLINGTON - New Zealand shares have risen, pushing the NZX 50 Index to a new record, as investors were attracted by the prospect of continued earnings and dividend growth.

The NZX 50 rose 12.548 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 4,366.575.


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Thứ Tư, 27 tháng 2, 2013

How Italian voters sent markets plunging

Silvio Berlusconi

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost got re-elected sending markets into a frenzy. Picture: File Source: AFP

THE Italian election sent European stocks plummeting overnight. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost got re-elected, sending all the austerity measures implemented by Mario Moni into doubt.

A shock election result on Monday showed a surge in support for comedian Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment campaign, as well as surprising support for former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

It is an indication of just how interconnected global markets are that the outcome of an election in a southern European country on the other side of the world could send shockwaves through to our local market.

European stockmarkets slumped overnight: Milan's FTSE MIB index tumbled 4.89 per cent and London's FTSE 100 index of leading companies fell 1.34 per cent.

Yesterday our own local market dived 1.2 per cent in early trade as a direct knock on from the Italian stalemate.


The reason: the Italian connection
Investors are concerned that the Italian people have voted in large numbers for a political party which is anti-austerity and anti-euro.

They were hoping for the liberal leader Pier Luigi Bersani to win which would allow him to form a coalition government with pro-austerity and current leader Mario Monti.

Instead the Italian people have staged somewhat of a "rebellion" and a push back against austerity.

The rebellion means a huge share of the vote has gone to Mr Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, the populist comedian.

Although Mr Berlusconi’s party does not have enough to form a majority Government – it has sent the markets into a frenzy because of fear of contagion.

It puts doubts in investors’ minds about the Eurozone’s ability to emerge from its sovereign debt crisis and see through its austerity program in problem countries like Spain, Italy and Greece

The fear is that a divided parliament in Italy would make the implementation of the austerity medicine (cutting public debt and spending) more difficult and would put a spanner in the works of the European recovery project - something that makes markets very nervous.

Italy is Europe’s third largest economy and how it performs and who is in power matters.

It also suffers from a raft of economic problems common to other southern European countries, ranging from low growth to an inflexible labour market and high debt to GDP - making strong leadership a must if it is to face up to its debt issues, implement the necessary austerity measures and start to regain its competitiveness.

We should also bear in mind that markets around the world are coming down off recent record highs, driven up as some see it by governments pumping money into the system and over-excited investors inflating prices of late.

So it is not surprising that we see a strong pull back on uncertainty out of Europe. 

On the other hand it can be argued we are seeing a return in investor confidence and appetite.

However ongoing doubts over a Euro area recovery, unresolved fiscal cliff issues in the US, questions over growth in Japan and China mean markets will likely remain choppy for some time to come.
 


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